Showing posts with label Stock. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Stock. Show all posts

Wednesday, June 9, 2010

Forex, The Art of Speculating and Trading by Ivan Cavric

Ivan Cavric

In order to become a successful speculator you must learn the art of speculation. This begins with discipline. It starts with the basics. Basics are boring but essential. If you do not master the basics you will not master the art of speculation.

Just like any other artist spends endless hours practicing and perfecting the basics you must do likewise. Before we go into some of the basics let me re-iterate the one essential ingredient – Discipline all others are secondary.

Let us begin with the basics. Treat Forex Trading and Currency Speculation as a business. That means you need a dedicated space to practice your art un-interrupted. Every day you need a place to go and work on being a successful speculator. Set regular hours of work for each day and keep them consistent. If you choose 8 – 12 or 7 -3, it’s not as important as it is sticking with the schedule. Five days per week whether you feel like it or not, go to your work area and stick with the schedule.

Avoid distractions. Pretend that you are working for someone else and at the end of the day you will have to report to him. This means that during your schedule you don’t decide to go shopping, do groceries, and mow the lawn or hundreds of other things that come up during the day. All non-business related phone calls are to be avoided including surfing the Internet and chatting.

You are working! You are becoming a successful speculator not a professional jack of all trades.

Yes, I realize that I spent a lot of time on one point. However if you can not commit to this one point than stop reading now and save yourself the time required to finish the remainder of the book. Do something productive with your time like gardening. Half hearted efforts will not make you a successful speculator any more than driving a car turns you into a competent mechanic.

By this point you should be able to answer the question: Do I have the desire to dedicate a portion of my time to the discipline of learning the art of successful speculation? Remember all you need is a minimum of 2 hours per day to get started, of course the more hours you dedicate the quicker progress you will make, but 2 hours per day is enough to get started.

You took the first step by purchasing this book. So get your money’s worth from it, let’s continue.

When you really think about, currency speculation is like no other job. You have a pleasant working environment, get to choose your own work hours and are surrounded by constant excitement. It’s not much of a sacrifice is it? And the potential rewards, let’s not lose sight of the rewards. Yes, money isn’t everything but it sure is a nice thing to have.

Another reason why it is important to emphasize the basics is daunting statistics. It is generally accepted that only 5% to 10% of all speculators make money, this statistic has held over several decades and there is no reason to believe that it will suddenly improve. Out of 100 people who are reading this book if they do not follow it 90 to 95 of them will lose some or all of their capital. That should be enough to motivate you—be disciplined and learn the basics.

Recently, I had an opportunity to watch and listen as my son learned to play guitar. He would spend hours learning the chords and notes, playing the same song, or parts of a song to be more accurate, over and over again. Barely recognizable, but this did not deter him. Then one day as I was reading I heard music, yes a song that I recognized played almost flawlessly as far as I was concerned. My son became an artist. He learned the art of playing music on the guitar.

Speculating is much like that, fortunately for us it’s easier to learn but still requires daily discipline. Artists aren’t born they are made, same with speculators. You aren’t born a speculator you have to become a speculator.

Another point that needs to be addressed is that speculation is a lot like gambling. In fact it could very easily turn into gambling which would explain why so many lose. In order to be a successful speculator you cannot afford yourself the luxury to depend on luck. You need to know all potential outcomes before you place and order and stick with it. If you don’t you will fall into gambling and in the long run lose your capital.

Not only have we seen this over and over again we have done it to ourselves. The strange thing about it, you don’t realize or admit to what you’re doing. It’s obvious to others and obvious to you when others are doing it but oblivious to you.

Then a strange phenomena occurs. You develop a form of selective amnesia. You can remember everything except how much money you lost. I haven’t heard a speculator yet admit to losing money. Miraculously they always manage to be even. This is quite startling when you consider the statistics. Either decades of data are wrong or our speculators turned gamblers are lying.

You probably have guessed the answer-most speculators are liars. They quickly recall all their profits while totally ignoring or acknowledging the overwhelming losses. Talking about not being able to see the forest from the trees. At all costs avoid this trap. “Don’t be a lying speculator, especially to yourself”. If you’re losing money it’s better to tell someone it’s not any of their business that it is to tell them you are even. They will know you’re lying and you now know that you’re lying.

Ivan Cavric

Excerpt Taken From

Forex Frontiers

Bottom Fishing With The Bears (Ivan Cavric)

Bottom Fishing With The Bears (Ivan Cavric)

A famous quote attributed to Baron Rothchilds encourages us that “the time to buy is when there is blood in the streets.” It is somewhat dramatic but it does get your attention. Reading and listening to the latest financial news one would have to conclude that there is “blood in the streets”, at least figuratively speaking.

Certain market sectors have been pummeled, primarily the Financials and Auto industries. Each day brings more bad news and it seems that there is no light at the end of the tunnel. Foreclosures, bankruptcies and government bailouts dominate the financial headlines. You hear things like no one is too big to fail. Yet our system is such that periodically these events must occur and that the survivors end up much stronger and more competitive when it’s all over.
It’s in times like these that opportunities arise. For the brave souls who go against the tide they become beneficiaries of great rewards. Others may see them as reckless or in most cases simply “lucky”. However it’s more than that. It’s the ability to act when others remain paralyzed. The only question is how to prudently go against the tide? Problem with bottom fishing is that no one really knows with certainty where the bottom is and when will the turnaround occur.
The next few paragraphs will attempt to outline a strategy to us for bottom fishing. It has been my experience that having a plan gives you the courage to act when the majority remain on the sidelines. Is this strategy foolproof? Of course not! Nothing is, and if you are one of those who believe otherwise, save yourself some time and stop reading the rest. However what it will do is greatly increase the probability in your favor. It will give you a blueprint as to how to proceed through the everyday noise. I know you must have heard this saying hundreds of times before, so one more time won’t hurt. “People don’t plan to fail, they fail to plan.” Investing in the market isn’t any different, you need a plan. Especially in a bad market! The strategy that is outlined works on individual stocks as well as EFT’s (exchange traded funds). You choose your own investment vehicle. As a suggestion it would be wise to use quality stocks listed and or quoted on major markets such as NYSE and NASDAQ as an example. And preferably purchase stocks that compose the S&P 500 Index. Only you know your risk tolerance, this is merely a suggestion.
Enough with the prelude, lets get down to the Bottom Fishing Strategy or BFS for short. In the demonstration I will use a fictional automaker listed on the NYSE trading at $10 per share under the symbol DOG. That’s right DOG, and it’s fictional and for illustration purposes only, so don’t go out and try to buy it or worse say that I am recommending the stock. As with most of the auto sector DOG has been hit hard. The price of the stock is down 60% from its 52 week high. Could this be the bottom? Who knows? As you research the company you feel that it may be a good long term investment and this seems like a buying opportunity. You have $10,000 to invest, what would be the best way to proceed?
Well, let’s put the BFS (bottom fishing strategy-remember) to work. Follow the seven steps carefully. They will apply equally to any investment decision you make.

1. Divide your $10,000 allocated for investment into four groups of $2,500. The procedure is the same whether investing $1,000 or $1 million. If you have under $1,000 than it would be best to consider other options.

2. Immediately purchase 250 shares of DOG at the current market price of $10 per share using your first $2,500 allocation and keeping the remainder in cash hopefully earning interest. (NOTE: commissions are not included in our illustration because they vary greatly between firms).

3. If and when the stock drops by 7% or $.70 to $9.30 buy 268 shares of DOG using your second $2,500 allocation. Now you are holding 518 shares of DOG at an average cost of $9.68 per share and still have $5,000 to invest.

4. DOG drops another 7% to $8.65, buy 289 shares suing your third allotment. You are currently holding 807 shares of DOG at an average cost of $9.20 per share and still have $2,500 to invest.
5. Stock drops again by another 7% to $8.04, buy 311 shares of DOG. Your total holdings of DOG are 1,118 shares at an average cost of $8.94 per share and you are fully invested.

6. This step is VERY IMPORTANT. Place a stop loss order 15% below your last purchase price which in our fictional illustration was $8.04. Therefore an open stop loss to sell 1,118 shares of DOG would be entered at $6.84. DO NOT CHANGE THIS!

7. If stopped out of the trade, which would mean the stock traded at or below $6.84, DO NOT BUY THIS STOCK AGAIN! UNDERSTAND! Go elsewhere. You have lost $2,359.59 or approximately 23.5% of your investment but it could have been worse. This is your worst case scenario and you know it before you even place your first trade. Look elsewhere for opportunities.

Follow this procedure for every investment you are considering. BFS allows you to
plan out your purchases systematically before you execute your first trade. Always keep in mind, once you decide to use the BFS, stick with the plan.
Yes I know, I can hear some of you already saying, “well that sounds good but what if the price of the stock doesn’t drop after my initial purchase”? Or “I purchased a couple of times and it stopped going down”! Congratulations! You have managed to pick the bottom, now hold on for the ride up and enjoy your profits. And yes I do have a strategy to maximize your profits when your stock is rising. However that is being saved for another article, maybe even a book. Now that you have a tool the rest is up to you, put it into practice, plan wisely and trade with confidence.

Ivan Cavric

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About Me

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Ivan Cavric I was born in 1959 in Croatia. I hold a degree in Religious Studies and I am an ordained minister in the Universal Life Church. During the early part of my life I worked at various jobs while continuing my education and later on became a fully registered Investment Advisor with the OSC (Ontario Securities Commission). I have successfully completed all the necessary requirements to be an Investment Advisor, as well as an Options, Commodities and Future Specialist. In 1995, I formed PrimeQuest Capital Corp. (formerly known as PrimeQuest Financial Group Inc.), which was structured as a virtual venture capital corporation with the capability of acting as an incubator for new ideas and start up ventures. Using the PrimeQuest model, I assisted in funding and developing several start-up ventures and acting as director and advisor to management. Some of these companies include Biosource Solutions Inc., Merritt House Media Inc., and Wolsley Finch Inc. Since then, I have been instrumental in providing venture capital and management assistance to over 70 companies, both private and public.

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